Israel and Iran – Trump’s Military Strike an Uncertain Outcome

“Uncertainty is the only certainty there is and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.” John Allen Paulos.

President Trump

Trumps recent military strike against Iran, will have the air of uncertainty about it for the foreseeable future. Only with the passing of time will this strike have context. How Iran responds to the strike will have much to do with how history will view it. Should Israel leave it there and maintain the ceasefire indefinitely, it will be an ideal outcome for both countries. If Israel decides to take advantage and escalate the situation by breaking the ceasefire, the outcome will be disastrous for all who have a stake in peace.

A Safer World

Did the military strike on Iran make the world a safer place, not in a million years. Iran will step back to assess the damage and analyze any long-lasting impact on its nuclear program. According to some reports the enriched uranium was moved before the strike happened. To date this is speculation with no intelligence to confirm if the movement of uranium happened. Regardless Iran will be more determined than ever to pursue the weaponization of its uranium.

Escalation

Iran is a part of the coalition including China and Russia who have stated a desire to change the world order that takes the United States out as the central pillar of the Western Alliance. Trump’s military strike will not deter Iran from becoming fully nuclear with weapons. The strike will lead to escalation not only of the nuclear arms race but the hardening of attitudes against the U.S. and its allies. “Death to America” will be the slogan some in Iran will continue to shout loudly in the streets of Tehran.

Continued Strikes

Trump has claimed that the impact of his ordered strike, had the same impact as what happened to Japan to end the Second World War. A strike that will end a forever war, he claims. Nothing is further from the truth. If Trump thinks this one strike will damage Iran’s nuclear program forever, he is sadly mistaken; more strikes will be needed if he wants to cause lasting damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Further strikes will be more or less a declaration of war, Trump wants to end them, not start fresh wars.

Alternet View

In an Alternet opinion piece written by Joe Conason, he argues that Donald Trump’s recent military action against Iranian nuclear sites was not driven by strategic necessity but by a desire to appear powerful and heroic.

Trump is a showman, a TV personality extraordinaire, which gives some credibility to Conason’s opinion; Trump wants to appear powerful and heroic; a ‘Strongman’ without a clear objective, whose actions risked dragging the U.S. into another prolonged war.

Looking Ahead

Tensions will continue but the ceasefire will hold, for how long, who knows. Israel and Iran want to avoid war; from Iran’s perspective, a full escalation will invite the U.S. to get involved. Israel appears to have achieved its military goals by blunting Iran and its acolytes from further terrorist attacks. Israel having gone through Gaza and ended with Trump’s strike on Iran should end its war and withdraw its military.