Trump Fractures Economy & MAGA

“Tariffs are inflationary.” Economist Natasha Sarin.

Inflated Grocery Prices

Trump’s tariff policies have had wide-ranging effects on the U.S. economy, and the response from MAGA supporters—once fiercely loyal—has grown increasingly fractured as the real-world consequences set in. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, these tariffs are projected to reduce long-run GDP by approximately six percent, lower wages by five percent, and cost middle-income households around $22,000 over a lifetime. Beyond these projections, the policies have triggered inflationary pressure by raising input costs for businesses, which in turn passed those costs on to consumers.

As a result, grocery prices, fuel, and manufactured goods have all seen notable

increases. Trade flows were distorted as companies rushed to import goods before tariffs took effect, leading to temporary spikes followed by sharp declines. Despite promises to revive American industry, manufacturing jobs—particularly in the auto sector—dropped by over twenty percent between 2024 and 2025. Investment uncertainty also grew, with businesses delaying or canceling expansion plans due to the unpredictability of trade policy.

Farmers and rural communities, many of whom were core MAGA supporters, have felt the brunt of these policies. Immigration crackdowns and visa restrictions left farms without the seasonal workers they depend on, while retaliatory tariffs from countries like China severely impacted U.S. agricultural exports. Rising input costs for equipment, fertilizer, and feed compounded the pressure, squeezing rural economies in states that had overwhelmingly supported Trump.

While some MAGA-aligned voices continue to defend the “America First” stance, others are expressing growing frustration. Prominent conservatives such as Ben Shapiro and Elon Musk have criticized the tariffs as “economic nuclear war” and “probably unconstitutional.” Influencers like David Portnoy have reported personal financial losses due to market instability, and political figures like Senator Ted Cruz have urged Trump to lower tariffs and pursue trade deals, warning against the dangers of permanent barriers. A growing number of former supporters now say the policies have hurt their livelihoods and betrayed the promises made during Trump’s campaigns.

Even within MAGA circles, there is tension over immigration and labor policy. Some activists blame foreign workers for economic challenges, while others acknowledge the essential role immigrants play in sustaining industries like agriculture and technology. Trump’s tariffs were intended to protect American jobs and industries, but the ripple effects—rising consumer prices, disrupted supply chains, and strained international relationships—have created significant economic headwinds. The MAGA base, once unified, is now grappling with the tangible costs of protectionism and populist economic policy.